The climate crisis is coming for your groceries

A new joint report by the World Meteorological Organization and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations confirms that rising global temperatures are already damaging crops and livestock, threatening future food supplies worldwide. This development underscores the growing risks posed by climate change to food security, affecting grocery availability and prices.

The report documents how recent extreme heat events have caused significant crop failures and livestock losses across multiple regions, including Brazil, India, and North America. In Brazil, record heat waves in 2024 led to reduced yields of soy, corn, and coffee, while livestock suffered heat stress. Similar impacts have been observed in India, where wheat yields declined by up to 34 percent in some states, and in the US Pacific Northwest, where berry harvests and timber volumes were affected. The report attributes these disruptions to the increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves linked to climate change.

The analysis merges weather data with agricultural outcomes, highlighting how prolonged and severe heat events threaten to become the new baseline. It also emphasizes that the current rate of warming is insufficiently rapid to prevent worsening impacts, with some regions potentially experiencing up to 250 days annually too hot for outdoor work by the end of the century. The report further details risks to fisheries, aquaculture, and forest ecosystems, illustrating the broad scope of climate impacts on food systems.

Why It Matters

This matters because disruptions to agriculture directly threaten global food security, potentially leading to higher grocery prices, shortages, and increased hunger worldwide. The findings reinforce the urgency of addressing climate change through mitigation and adaptation strategies. Additionally, the report highlights the occupational risks faced by agricultural workers exposed to extreme heat, which can lead to health crises and labor shortages.

Background

Recent years have seen a series of record-breaking heat waves, such as the 2024 heat in Brazil and India, which have already impacted food production. The joint UN report builds on previous studies documenting climate-related agricultural losses, emphasizing that these are part of a broader pattern driven by human-caused warming. The report also notes that climate variability, such as El Niño and La Niña cycles, exacerbates these effects, creating unpredictable and often damaging weather patterns for farmers worldwide.

“We have a residual risk that is increasing, and the impacts on food production are becoming more severe and widespread.”

— Martial Bernoux, FAO senior natural resources officer

“Heat is estimated to kill almost half a million people a year, driven by fossil fuel-induced climate change, which is worsening.”

— António Guterres, UN Secretary-General

“The report’s diagnosis is sharper than ever, but the solutions have yet to catch up with the scale of the crisis.”

— Naia Ormaza Zulueta, researcher at University of British Columbia

What Remains Unclear

It remains unclear how effectively global efforts will mitigate future impacts, and whether new adaptation measures can keep pace with worsening conditions. The precise extent of future crop and livestock losses depends on climate trajectories and policy responses, which are still uncertain.

What’s Next

Next steps include increasing climate resilience in agriculture through technological innovations, policy reforms, and international cooperation. Monitoring ongoing climate impacts and implementing targeted adaptation strategies will be critical, with upcoming UN climate negotiations likely to focus on these issues.

Key Questions

How soon could grocery prices be affected by these climate impacts?

While some impacts are already affecting prices, widespread effects on grocery costs may become more pronounced within the next 1-3 years as crop yields decline and supply chains face disruptions.

Which regions are most at risk of losing their food production capacity?

Regions most vulnerable include parts of South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South America, where extreme heat and climate variability threaten major crops and fisheries.

What can consumers do to prepare for potential food shortages?

Consumers can stay informed about local food availability, support sustainable agriculture, and advocate for policies addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation.